Pafos 5–1 Anorthosis: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Pafos

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Anorthosis

Jajá 70'

Jairo 45+2', 11'

David Goldar 20'

M. Tankovic 16'

Hélder Ferreira 9'

4/21/2024

1. Division · Championship Round - 8Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pafos67%

×Draw20%

Anorthosis13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PafosExpected goals in this matchAnorthosis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.74

Pafos

2.00

Anorthosis

0.74

Pafos creates 170% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

2.38

creates per match

0.67

0.81

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Pafos

2.38

Anorthosis

0.67

allows per match

Pafos

0.81

Anorthosis

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par

Anorthosis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Anorthosis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pafos or draw

87%

Pafos or Anorthosis

80%

Draw or Anorthosis

33%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+

42%

Anorthosis wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals

86%

Pafos 2+ goals

59%

Pafos 3+ goals

32%

Anorthosis 1+ goals

52%

Anorthosis 2+ goals

17%

Anorthosis 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)

84%

Anorthosis (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Anorthosis away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 2.38 + Anorthosis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.00

Anorthosis attack 0.67 + Pafos defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pafos scores more

67%

level

20%

Anorthosis scores more

13%

Pafos at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

11'

16'

18'

20'

21'

36'

43'

45+2'

59'

Kiko← M. Antoniou

59'

N. Michael← A. Keravnos

70'

Jajá

71'

M. Demetriou← David Goldar

71'

A. Contreras← Jairo

71'

O. Valakari← M. Kané

85'

Bruno Felipe← Jajá

85'

P. Twumasi← M. Tankovic

85'

D. Juliou← Sergio Castel

85'

Alberto Perea← Hélder Ferreira

90+2'

Alberto Perea

90+4'

K. Konstantinou← A. Chrysostomou

Pafos4-2-3-1

Anorthosis3-4-2-1

9

▼

Castel

11

⚽

▼

Ferreira

17

Paroutis

7

Correia

88

▼

Chrysosto

8

Tejera

22

▼

16

44

6

99

▼

1

12

4

5

⚽

▼

Goldar

17

Rus

88

Rodrigues

8

▼

Kané

20

⚽

▼

Jajá

30

Dragomir

22

⚽

▼

Tankovic

10

⚽2

▼

Jairo

Manager: Carcedo

71'▲M. Demetriou←▼David Goldar

71'▲A. Contreras←▼Jairo

71'▲O. Valakari←▼M. Kané

85'▲Bruno Felipe←▼Jajá

85'▲P. Twumasi←▼M. Tankovic

Pafos substitutes

14Demetriou19Contreras24Valakari7Felipe27Twumasi18Abdusalamov23Michail25Name34Dall'Igna40Josipović

Manager: G. Okkas

59'▲Kiko←▼M. Antoniou

59'▲N. Michael←▼A. Keravnos

85'▲D. Juliou←▼Sergio Castel

85'▲Alberto Perea←▼Hélder Ferreira

90+4'▲K. Konstantinou←▼A. Chrysostomou

Anorthosis substitutes

23Kiko93Michael50Juliou80Perea52Konstantinou20Waris51Pishias57Charalambous