Anorthosis 1–1 Pafos: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Anorthosis

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pafos

Kiko 82'

David Luiz 17'

11/9/2025

1. Division · Round 10Antonis Papadopoulos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Anorthosis35%

×Draw26%

Pafos39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnorthosisExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.40

Anorthosis

1.31

Pafos

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.39

creates per match

1.64

1.17

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Anorthosis

1.39

Pafos

1.64

allows per match

Anorthosis

1.17

Pafos

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anorthosis+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anorthosis ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Anorthosis or draw

61%

Anorthosis or Pafos

74%

Draw or Pafos

65%

Winning margin

Anorthosis wins by 2+

15%

Pafos wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Anorthosis 1+ goals

73%

Anorthosis 2+ goals

38%

Anorthosis 3+ goals

14%

Pafos 1+ goals

75%

Pafos 2+ goals

41%

Pafos 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Anorthosis (draw refunded)

47%

Pafos (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anorthosis at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anorthosis attack 1.39 + Pafos defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pafos attack 1.64 + Anorthosis defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Anorthosis scores more

35%

level

26%

Pafos scores more

39%

Pafos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

David Luiz

Pafos · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

David Luiz

37'

K. Sema← D. Goldar

41'

Mislav Oršić

46'

B. Dione← E. Charalambous

46'

M. Ilia← R. Bezus

56'

O. Mimovic← Bruno

56'

Pepe← L. Dimata

60'

Gabriel Furtado

62'

Kostas Pileas

64'

A. Chrysostomou← K. Artymatas

70'

N. Michail← J. Gorter

70'

Anderson Silva← M. Orsic

82'

Kiko

83'

David Luiz

83'

T. Kiss← C. Aboagye

89'

A. Karamanolis← F. E. Sosa Vivaldi

90+8'

Stefano Sensi

90+8'

Ken Sema

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AnorthosisPafos

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots4

0.72Expected Goals (xG)0.60

5Corners4

11Fouls22

Shots

7Total Shots4

3On Target2

4Off Target2

0Blocked0

3Inside Box4

4Outside Box0

Passing

45%Possession55%

289Total Passes385

242Accurate Passes319

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls22

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3