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Oxford United vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
12/26/2026League OneLeague One · Round 21Kassam Stadium
Big match
45%
Oxford United
model favours
45%25%30%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Oxford United45%
×Draw25%
Plymouth30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.60
Plymouth
1.26

Oxford United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 114 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.70
Plymouth
1.39

allows per match

Oxford United
1.13
Plymouth
1.50

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
70%
Oxford United or Plymouth
75%
Draw or Plymouth
55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
23%
Plymouth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
80%
Oxford United 2+ goals
47%
Oxford United 3+ goals
22%
Plymouth 1+ goals
72%
Plymouth 2+ goals
36%
Plymouth 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
60%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more
45%
level
25%
Plymouth scores more
30%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Oxford United win just 26% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 2.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oxford United
Balanced
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
50%Possession49%
74%Pass accuracy68%
12.0ShotsBiggest gap13.4
—xG2.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Oxford UnitedPlymouth

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Oxford United
1
Draws
5
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
1–12–01–30–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
United
WLWLL
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oxford United face Plymouth (League One)

League One returns with Oxford United hosting Plymouth. Match starts December 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oxford United host Plymouth at Kassam Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.