Oxford United 1–3 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Plymouth

M. Taylor 5'

Panutche Camará 84', 39'

J. Garrick 11'

10/16/2021

League One · Round 13The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Oxford United45%

×Draw25%

Plymouth30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.26

Oxford United

1.60

Plymouth

1.26

Oxford United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 114 away

1.70

creates per match

1.39

1.13

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

70%

Oxford United or Plymouth

75%

Draw or Plymouth

55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

23%

Plymouth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

80%

Oxford United 2+ goals

47%

Oxford United 3+ goals

22%

Plymouth 1+ goals

72%

Plymouth 2+ goals

36%

Plymouth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

60%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more

45%

level

25%

Plymouth scores more

30%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Panutche Camará

Plymouth · M

9.0

Match Events

5'

M. Taylor↳ J. Henry

11'

J. Garrick↳ L. Jephcott

31'

Dan Scarr

39'

Panutche Camará↳ L. Jephcott

65'

D. Mayor← R. Broom

69'

M. Sykes← G. Whyte

79'

R. Hardie← L. Jephcott

81'

D. Agyei← J. Henry

84'

Panutche Camará↳ C. Grant

87'

B. Galloway← C. Grant

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordPlymouth

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots12

7Corners1

13Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots12

2On Target5

9Off Target7

3Blocked0

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

496Total Passes394

374Accurate Passes257

75%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3