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Oxford United vs Ipswich — League One 2025

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ipswich
Ipswich
C. Brannagan 83'
Y. Wildschut 34'
L. Davis 37'
1/21/2023League OneLeague One · Round 28The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oxford United43%
×Draw23%
Ipswich34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.70
Ipswich
1.50

Oxford United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Oxford United
2.00
Ipswich
1.60

allows per match

Oxford United
1.40
Ipswich
1.40

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
66%
Oxford United or Ipswich
77%
Draw or Ipswich
57%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
22%
Ipswich wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
82%
Oxford United 2+ goals
51%
Oxford United 3+ goals
24%
Ipswich 1+ goals
78%
Ipswich 2+ goals
44%
Ipswich 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
56%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 2.00 + Ipswich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Ipswich attack 1.60 + Oxford United defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oxford United scores more
43%
level
23%
Ipswich scores more
34%

Oxford United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
L. DavisIpswichIpswich · M
8.0

Match Events

34'
Y. Wildschut
37'
L. Davis↳ M. Harness
64'
M. Taylor← M. McGuane
64'
K. Joseph← Y. Wildschut
64'
F. Ladapo← G. Hirst
64'
N. Broadhead← M. Harness
81'
Janoi Donacien
82'
G. O'Donkor← B. Bodin
83'
T. Goodrham← D. Anderson
83'
C. Brannagan
85'
S. Aluko← C. Chaplin
85'
H. Clarke← J. Donacien
86'
K. Jackson← W. Burns
89'
S. Findlay← L. Bate

Possession

42%Oxford

Shots

13Oxford

Pass accuracy

46%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordIpswich
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots17
3Corners5
9Fouls22
Shots
13Total Shots17
5On Target6
7Off Target7
1Blocked4
8Inside Box15
5Outside Box2
Passing
42%Possession58%
270Total Passes375
155Accurate Passes253
57%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls22
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Ipswich

Oxford United beat Ipswich 2-1 in League One on January 21, 2023.

Goals: Y. Wildschut (34'), L. Davis (37'), C. Brannagan (83').

Ipswich controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.