Ipswich 2–1 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Oxford United

C. Akpom 40'

J. Philogene 17'

W. Lankshear 34'

1/1/2026

Championship · Round 25Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Ipswich54%

×Draw24%

Oxford United22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.02

Ipswich

1.75

Oxford United

1.02

Ipswich creates 72% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

1.91

creates per match

1.27

0.76

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ipswich

1.91

Oxford United

1.27

allows per match

Ipswich

0.76

Oxford United

1.60

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.05on par

Oxford United-0.02on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

78%

Ipswich or Oxford United

76%

Draw or Oxford United

46%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

30%

Oxford United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

83%

Ipswich 2+ goals

52%

Ipswich 3+ goals

25%

Oxford United 1+ goals

64%

Oxford United 2+ goals

27%

Oxford United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

71%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.76 · 26 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.91 + Oxford United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Oxford United attack 1.27 + Ipswich defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ipswich scores more

54%

level

24%

Oxford United scores more

22%

Ipswich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Nunez

Ipswich · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

J. Philogene↳ J. Cajuste

23'

S. Dembele← T. Goodrham

27'

Siriki Dembélé

34'

W. Lankshear↳ F. Krastev

40'

C. Akpom

46'

S. Mills← P. Placheta

56'

Chuba Akpom

56'

Ciaron Brown

61'

Michał Helik

68'

W. Burns← S. W. Egeli

68'

J. Clarke← M. Nunez

73'

L. Harris← F. Krastev

75'

Will Vaulks

76'

J. Taylor← J. Cajuste

76'

I. Azon← C. Akpom

84'

A. Young← J. Philogene

85'

M. Harris← W. Lankshear

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichOxford

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots8

1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.08

9Corners2

9Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots8

6On Target1

6Off Target4

7Blocked3

10Inside Box6

9Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

526Total Passes303

452Accurate Passes234

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.87Goals Prevented0.87

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1