Ipswich 3–0 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Oxford United

C. Chaplin 81'

W. Burns 45'

F. Ladapo 39'

12/26/2022

League One · Round 23Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ipswich77%

×Draw16%

Oxford United7%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.52

Ipswich

2.28

Oxford United

0.52

Ipswich creates 338% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.56

creates per match

0.60

0.44

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ipswich

2.56

Oxford United

0.60

allows per match

Ipswich

0.44

Oxford United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

93%

Ipswich or Oxford United

84%

Draw or Oxford United

23%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

53%

Oxford United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

90%

Ipswich 2+ goals

66%

Ipswich 3+ goals

39%

Oxford United 1+ goals

41%

Oxford United 2+ goals

10%

Oxford United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

92%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 2.56 + Oxford United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.28

Oxford United attack 0.60 + Ipswich defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Ipswich scores more

77%

level

16%

Oxford United scores more

7%

Ipswich at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Davis

Ipswich · M

7.6

Match Events

15'

36'

39'

45'

46'

J. Murphy← D. Anderson

51'

James Henry

60'

Y. Wildschut← J. Henry

60'

G. O'Donkor← M. Taylor

66'

S. Aluko← M. Harness

72'

K. Jackson← F. Ladapo

81'

C. Chaplin↳ S. Aluko

83'

K. Vincent-Young← W. Burns

84'

C. Humphreys← L. Evans

84'

K. Edwards← C. Chaplin

89'

T. Goodrham← M. McGuane

90'

Kane Vincent-Young

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichOxford

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots7

13Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots7

9On Target2

4Off Target3

5Blocked2

11Inside Box2

7Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

521Total Passes286

404Accurate Passes172

78%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2