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Oxford United vs Ipswich — League One 2025

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
L. McNally 90+5'
B. Celina 70'
3/19/2022League OneLeague One · Round 39The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oxford United50%
×Draw23%
Ipswich27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.84
Ipswich
1.30

Oxford United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Oxford United
2.29
Ipswich
1.60

allows per match

Oxford United
1.00
Ipswich
1.40

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
73%
Oxford United or Ipswich
77%
Draw or Ipswich
50%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
28%
Ipswich wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
84%
Oxford United 2+ goals
55%
Oxford United 3+ goals
28%
Ipswich 1+ goals
73%
Ipswich 2+ goals
37%
Ipswich 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
65%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 2.29 + Ipswich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ipswich attack 1.60 + Oxford United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oxford United scores more
50%
level
23%
Ipswich scores more
27%

Oxford United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
L. WoolfendenIpswichIpswich · D
7.7

Match Events

53'
M. Bonne← J. Pigott
53'
Sam Morsy← T. Carroll
56'
Wes Burns
68'
M. McGuane← B. Bodin
70'
B. Celina↳ W. Burns
84'
N. Holland← C. Brown
87'
S. Aluko← B. Celina
88'
S. Winnall← G. Whyte
90+6'
Mark Sykes
90+2'
Ryan Williams
90+4'
Macauley Bonne
90+5'
L. McNally↳ H. Kane

Possession

51%Oxford

Shots

16Oxford

Pass accuracy

49%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordIpswich
Overview
51%Possession49%
16Total Shots12
5Corners4
8Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots12
4On Target6
2Off Target1
10Blocked5
9Inside Box7
7Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
442Total Passes406
304Accurate Passes293
69%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Ipswich

Oxford United and Ipswich drew 1-1 in League One on March 19, 2022.

Goals: B. Celina (70'), L. McNally (90+5').

Oxford United controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.