Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oxford United vs Derby — Championship 2025

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Derby
Derby
S. Mills 24'
10/18/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Oxford United50%
×Draw26%
Derby23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.47
Derby
0.91

Oxford United creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.56
Derby
0.99

allows per match

Oxford United
0.83
Derby
1.37

finishing

Oxford United-0.06on par
Derby+0.17scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
77%
Oxford United or Derby
74%
Draw or Derby
50%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
25%
Derby wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
77%
Oxford United 2+ goals
43%
Oxford United 3+ goals
18%
Derby 1+ goals
60%
Derby 2+ goals
23%
Derby 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
68%
Derby (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Derby away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.37 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.56 + Derby defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Derby attack 0.99 + Oxford United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oxford United scores more
50%
level
26%
Derby scores more
23%

Oxford United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. Widell ZetterstromDerbyDerby · G
8.0

Match Events

24'
S. Mills↳ B. De Keersmaecker
43'
Jack Currie
46'
B. Clark← B. Brereton Diaz
55'
Will Vaulks
59'
Matthew Clarke
61'
P. Agyemang← A. Weimann
71'
P. Placheta← S. Mills
71'
C. Blackett-Taylor← D. Ozoh
72'
Cameron Brannagan
84'
C. Elder← C. Forsyth
85'
L. Salvesen← R. Brewster
86'
Ciaron Brown
89'
M. Harris← N. Prelec
89'
B. Davies← S. Dembele

Possession

49%Oxford

Shots

19Oxford

Pass accuracy

51%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordDerby
Overview
49%Possession51%
19Total Shots6
2.17Expected Goals (xG)0.25
4Corners12
19Fouls6
Shots
19Total Shots6
7On Target1
8Off Target2
4Blocked3
13Inside Box4
6Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
341Total Passes336
267Accurate Passes250
78%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
0.92Goals Prevented0.92
Discipline
19Fouls6
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Championship: Oxford United 1–0 Derby

Oxford United beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on October 18, 2025.

Goals: S. Mills (24').

Derby controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 19.

The match was played at Kassam Stadium in Oxford.