Derby 1–0 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oxford United

J. Banel 22'

4/18/2026

Championship · Round 43Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Derby47%

×Draw27%

Oxford United26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.94

Derby

1.37

Oxford United

0.94

Derby creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 25 away

1.38

creates per match

0.88

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Derby

1.38

Oxford United

0.88

allows per match

Derby

1.00

Oxford United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw

74%

Derby or Oxford United

73%

Draw or Oxford United

53%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

22%

Oxford United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

75%

Derby 2+ goals

40%

Derby 3+ goals

16%

Oxford United 1+ goals

61%

Oxford United 2+ goals

24%

Oxford United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

64%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 52 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.38 + Oxford United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Oxford United attack 0.88 + Derby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Derby scores more

47%

level

27%

Oxford United scores more

26%

Derby at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

J. Banel

Derby · M

8.6

Match Events

22'

J. Banel↳ S. Szmodics

26'

David Ozoh

62'

Jeon Jin-Woo← J. Donley

62'

A. Emakhu← M. Peart-Harris

71'

O. Fraulo← D. Ozoh

71'

S. Langas← D. Sanderson

76'

Sammie Szmodics

80'

Cameron Brannagan

84'

M. Harris← Y. E. Konak

86'

M. Johnston← J. Banel

87'

Oscar Fraulo

88'

Derry Murkin

89'

W. Vaulks← B. Spencer

90+1'

C. Forsyth← D. Murkin

90+1'

L. Salvesen← S. Szmodics

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyOxford

Overview

67%Possession33%

15Total Shots11

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.67

7Corners3

14Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

2On Target0

5Off Target5

8Blocked6

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

67%Possession33%

507Total Passes247

440Accurate Passes180

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.42Goals Prevented-0.42

Discipline

14Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2