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Oxford United vs Derby — League One 2025

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Derby
Derby
C. Brannagan 13', 2' (pen)
E. Cashin 86'
L. Thompson 81'
C. Forsyth 45+3'
12/29/2023League OneLeague One · Round 25The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oxford United44%
×Draw25%
Derby31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.56
Derby
1.25

Oxford United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Oxford United
2.00
Derby
1.11

allows per match

Oxford United
1.40
Derby
1.11

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
69%
Oxford United or Derby
75%
Draw or Derby
56%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
22%
Derby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
79%
Oxford United 2+ goals
46%
Oxford United 3+ goals
21%
Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
36%
Derby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
59%
Derby (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Derby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 2.00 + Derby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Derby attack 1.11 + Oxford United defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oxford United scores more
44%
level
25%
Derby scores more
31%

Oxford United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
E. CashinDerbyDerby · D
8.9

Match Events

2'
Joe Wildsmith
2'
C. BrannaganPenalty
13'
C. Brannagan
24'
Max Bird
45+3'
C. Forsyth↳ J. Collins
46'
J. Henry← T. Goodrham
59'
Tom Barkhuizen
59'
J. McEachran← S. Mills
61'
T. John-Jules← J. Collins
67'
James Beadle
70'
J. Thorniley← M. Harris
71'
Tyreece John-Jules
75'
S. Bradley← C. Forsyth
75'
L. Sibley← R. Nyambe
80'
L. Thompson← T. Barkhuizen
81'
J. Ward← K. Wilson
81'
L. Thompson↳ E. Cashin
86'
E. Cashin↳ C. Hourihane
87'
G. O'Donkor← M. McGuane

Possession

35%Oxford

Shots

9Oxford

Pass accuracy

46%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordDerby
Overview
35%Possession65%
9Total Shots20
2Corners19
4Fouls17
Shots
9Total Shots20
6On Target5
2Off Target8
1Blocked7
5Inside Box16
4Outside Box4
Passing
35%Possession65%
298Total Passes527
202Accurate Passes422
68%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
4Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Derby

Derby beat Oxford United 3-2 in League One on December 29, 2023.

Goals: C. Brannagan (2' pen, 13'), C. Forsyth (45+3'), L. Thompson (81'), E. Cashin (86').

Derby controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.