Oxford United 1–1 Derby: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Derby

D. Scarlett 12'

N. Mendez-Laing 55'

10/22/2024

Championship · Round 11The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Oxford United45%

×Draw27%

Derby28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.01

Oxford United

1.36

Derby

1.01

Oxford United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 36 away

1.38

creates per match

0.97

1.05

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Oxford United

1.38

Derby

0.97

allows per match

Oxford United

1.05

Derby

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Derby+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

72%

Oxford United or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

55%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

21%

Derby wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

74%

Oxford United 2+ goals

39%

Oxford United 3+ goals

16%

Derby 1+ goals

64%

Derby 2+ goals

27%

Derby 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

62%

Derby (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 13 matches

Derby away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.35 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.38 + Derby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Derby attack 0.97 + Oxford United defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oxford United scores more

45%

level

27%

Derby scores more

28%

Oxford United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Mendez-Laing

Derby · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

D. Scarlett↳ I. El Mizouni

19'

38'

45+1'

46'

50'

Corey Blackett-Taylor

55'

N. Mendez-Laing↳ J. Yates

56'

M. Harness← K. Goudmijn

57'

K. Jackson← C. Blackett-Taylor

62'

M. Harris← D. Scarlett

67'

J. McEachran← W. Vaulks

68'

L. Sibley← I. El Mizouni

76'

Eiran Joe Cashin

85'

G. Leigh← Ruben Rodrigues

89'

J. Collins← J. Yates

89'

N. Phillips← N. Mendez-Laing

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordDerby

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots17

0.46Expected Goals (xG)1.15

1Corners6

8Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots17

3On Target4

3Off Target8

5Blocked5

5Inside Box13

6Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

417Total Passes384

317Accurate Passes279

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11

Discipline

8Fouls8

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1