Oxford United 2–3 Derby: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Derby

K. Joseph 90'

S. Long 14'

S. Long 61' (OG)

L. Sibley 40', 23'

3/11/2023

League One · Round 36The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Oxford United39%

×Draw26%

Derby35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.26

Oxford United

1.34

Derby

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 46 away

1.70

creates per match

1.39

1.13

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Oxford United

1.70

Derby

1.39

allows per match

Oxford United

1.13

Derby

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

65%

Oxford United or Derby

74%

Draw or Derby

61%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

18%

Derby wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

74%

Oxford United 2+ goals

39%

Oxford United 3+ goals

15%

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

53%

Derby (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.34

Derby attack 1.39 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oxford United scores more

39%

level

26%

Derby scores more

35%

Oxford United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

L. Sibley

Derby · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

S. Long↳ J. Henry

23'

L. Sibley↳ C. Hourihane

39'

Ciaron Brown

40'

L. Sibley↳ C. Forsyth

45+3'

O. Smyth← J. Henry

59'

Korey Smith

61'

S. LongOwn goal

63'

T. Barkhuizen← T. Springett

66'

T. Goodrham← D. Anderson

77'

M. McGuane← L. Bate

77'

K. Joseph← G. ODonkor

78'

Y. Wildschut← M. Browne

80'

M. Bird← C. Hourihane

80'

H. Roberts← N. Mendez-Laing

87'

L. Dobbin← L. Sibley

90'

K. Joseph↳ M. McGuane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordDerby

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots8

11Corners2

11Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots8

8On Target4

2Off Target3

3Blocked1

6Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

444Total Passes241

321Accurate Passes122

72%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2