Ostersunds FK vs Vasby United — Allsvenskan 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Ostersunds FK53%
Vasby United23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ostersunds FK creates 68% more chances
Season form · 60 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ostersunds FK ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches
Vasby United away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ostersunds FK attack 1.30 + Vasby United defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.71
Vasby United attack 0.53 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Ostersunds FK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
AIK Stockholm
IFK Norrkoping
Malmo FF
Hammarby FF
BK HackenOstersunds FK
Djurgardens IF
GIF Sundsvall
Orebro SK
Kalmar FF
IFK Goteborg
IF Elfsborg
Sirius
IF Brommapojkarna
Dalkurd FFIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ostersunds FK host Vasby United on Saturday, 3 August 2019 at 14:00. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Vasby United
Vasby United beat Ostersunds FK 2-1 in Allsvenskan on August 3, 2019.
The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Ostersund.