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AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2026

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
A. Muhsin 63', 19'
A. Alsanati 55'
A. Mammar 49'
C. Weilid 75'
5/28/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna52%
×Draw26%
Ostersunds FK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.55
Ostersunds FK
0.92

AFC Eskilstuna creates 68% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 70 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.59
Ostersunds FK
0.89

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
0.95
Ostersunds FK
1.51

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
78%
AFC Eskilstuna or Ostersunds FK
74%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
48%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
27%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
79%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
46%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
20%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
60%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
23%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
70%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.59 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
52%
level
26%
Ostersunds FK scores more
22%

AFC Eskilstuna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
A. Muhsin
23'
Peter Amoran
34'
Mansour Sinyan
38'
Jesper Manns
41'
Abdelkarim Chaouche
41'
Andrew Mills
49'
A. Mammar
53'
Y. Adjoumani← M. Sinyan
55'
A. Alsanati
61'
Felix Michel← Y. Rafael
61'
V. Götesson← A. Ekeroth
63'
A. Muhsin
64'
A. Österholm← C. Amatkarijo
64'
J. Attah Kadiri← S. Karlsson Grach
75'
C. Weilid
81'
A. Coffey← A. Muhsin
86'
N. Ghebrekristos← A. Hudu
86'
I. Shamoun← A. Alsanati
90+1'
Kamal Issah
90+2'
K. Jablinski← L. Fritzson

Shots

12AFC

Statistics

AFCOstersunds
Overview
12Total Shots8
5Corners5
15Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots8
8On Target2
4Off Target3
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK

AFC Eskilstuna beat Ostersunds FK 4-1 in Superettan on May 28, 2022.

Goals: A. Muhsin (19', 63'), A. Mammar (49'), A. Alsanati (55'), C. Weilid (75').

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.