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AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2026

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
S. Karlsson Adjei 21'
C. Amatkarijo 30'
5/21/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 8Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna51%
×Draw26%
Ostersunds FK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.53
Ostersunds FK
0.93

AFC Eskilstuna creates 65% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 70 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.55
Ostersunds FK
0.89

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
0.97
Ostersunds FK
1.51

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
77%
AFC Eskilstuna or Ostersunds FK
74%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
49%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
26%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
78%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
45%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
20%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
61%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
24%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
69%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.55 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
51%
level
26%
Ostersunds FK scores more
23%

AFC Eskilstuna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
S. Karlsson Adjei
30'
C. Amatkarijo
45'
Mattis Adolfsson
46'
M. Palomino← I. Shamoun
46'
A. Hudu← T. Hansemon
55'
Malcolm Stolt
57'
Robin Sundgren
61'
O. Lindberg← Z. Fryers
62'
A. Österholm← J. Johnsson
71'
A. Yakubu← A. Culum
71'
E. Agyemang Duah← Samir Maarouf
77'
S. Karlsson Grach← M. Stolt
78'
C. Kabuye← C. Amatkarijo
84'
S. Zekovic← M. Musolitin

Possession

45%AFC

Shots

6AFC

Statistics

AFCOstersunds
Overview
45%Possession55%
6Total Shots10
4Corners9
12Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots10
3On Target5
2Off Target4
1Blocked1
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 1–1 Ostersunds FK

AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in Superettan on May 21, 2023.

Goals: S. Karlsson Adjei (21'), C. Amatkarijo (30').

Ostersunds FK controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.