Ostersunds FK 1–1 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Eskilstuna

8/12/2023

Superettan · Round 18Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ostersunds FK46%

×Draw25%

AFC Eskilstuna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.19

Ostersunds FK

1.58

AFC Eskilstuna

1.19

Ostersunds FK creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 75 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.57

AFC Eskilstuna

1.00

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.38

AFC Eskilstuna

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

71%

Ostersunds FK or AFC Eskilstuna

75%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

54%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

24%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

79%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

47%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

21%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

70%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

33%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

62%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

46%

level

25%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

29%

Ostersunds FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff