Osters IF vs Oddevold — Superettan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Osters IF43%
Oddevold32%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Osters IF creates 20% more chances
Season form · 101 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Osters IF ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Osters IF at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches
Oddevold away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Osters IF attack 1.68 + Oddevold defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53
Oddevold attack 1.49 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.28
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Osters IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Oddevold substitutes
Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Landskrona BoIS
Vasteras SK FKOddevold
Helsingborg
Ostersunds FK
IK brage
Kalmar FF
Sandviken
Orebro SK
Orgryte IS
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Norrkoping
United NordicOsters IF
Norrby IF
Ljungskile SK
Umeå FC
Utsikten
Trelleborg
IFK Varnamo
Hammarby TalangIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Osters IF host Oddevold on Friday, 10 May 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the Superettan 2026/2027 season.
Superettan: Osters IF 3–0 Oddevold
Osters IF beat Oddevold 3-0 in Superettan on May 10, 2024.
Goals: I. Kričak (5'), V. Rodić (11'), A. Wiberg (40').
The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.