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Oddevold vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

Oddevold
Oddevold
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
J. Merbom Adolfsoon 34'
A. Shakir 89'
L. Carlstrand 46'
4/20/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 3Rimnersvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Oddevold35%
×Draw26%
Osters IF39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oddevold
1.33
Osters IF
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 100 away

creates per match

Oddevold
1.29
Osters IF
1.30

allows per match

Oddevold
1.53
Osters IF
1.37

finishing

Oddevold+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw
61%
Oddevold or Osters IF
74%
Draw or Osters IF
65%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+
16%
Osters IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals
74%
Oddevold 2+ goals
38%
Oddevold 3+ goals
15%
Osters IF 1+ goals
76%
Osters IF 2+ goals
41%
Osters IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)
47%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.37 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 1.29 + Osters IF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Osters IF attack 1.30 + Oddevold defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oddevold scores more
35%
level
26%
Osters IF scores more
39%

Osters IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
J. Merbom Adolfsoon
46'
M. Hartmann← C. Lundahl
46'
K. Wendt← F. Olsson
46'
L. Carlstrand↳ D. Ask
60'
Mattis Adolfsson
66'
Elias Forsberg
68'
M. Tamminen← L. Carlstrand
70'
D. Krezic← E. Forsberg
79'
K. Gyamfi← M. Adolfsson
79'
A. Shakir← D. Ask
81'
H. Engstrom← O. Kjellman Olblad
89'
A. Shakir↳ S. Burakovsky

Possession

53%Oddevold

Statistics

OddevoldOsters
Overview
53%Possession47%
8Corners6
16Fouls10
Shots
8On Target5
6Off Target7
Passing
53%Possession47%
Discipline
16Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides0

Match Recap: Oddevold vs Osters IF

Osters IF beat Oddevold 2-1 in Superettan on April 20, 2026.

Goals: J. Merbom Adolfsoon (34'), L. Carlstrand (46'), A. Shakir (89').

Oddevold dominated possession with 53% of the ball.

The match was played at Rimnersvallen in Uddevalla.