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Oddevold vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

Oddevold
Oddevold
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Osters IF
Osters IF
A. Al Hamlawi 50'
D. Ljung 44'
10/6/2024SuperettanSuperettan · Round 26Rimnersvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Oddevold35%
×Draw26%
Osters IF39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oddevold
1.33
Osters IF
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 100 away

creates per match

Oddevold
1.29
Osters IF
1.30

allows per match

Oddevold
1.53
Osters IF
1.37

finishing

Oddevold+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw
61%
Oddevold or Osters IF
74%
Draw or Osters IF
65%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+
16%
Osters IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals
74%
Oddevold 2+ goals
38%
Oddevold 3+ goals
15%
Osters IF 1+ goals
76%
Osters IF 2+ goals
41%
Osters IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)
47%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.37 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 1.29 + Osters IF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Osters IF attack 1.30 + Oddevold defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oddevold scores more
35%
level
26%
Osters IF scores more
39%

Osters IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
A. Al HamlawiOddevoldOddevold · F
8.5

Match Events

23'
S. Hedlund← M. Adolfsson
26'
Kevin Höög Jansson
44'
D. Ljung
46'
M. Andersen← D. Ljung
50'
A. Al Hamlawi
64'
Ivan Kričak
66'
O. Iglicar Berntsson← O. Kjellman Olblad
66'
J. Johansson← G. Forssell
67'
Julius Johansson
74'
V. Rodić← N. Söderberg
81'
L. Tornblad← A. Snibb
81'
D. Krezic← L. Kalludra
86'
R. Adjei← T. Varmanen
90+5'
A. Pettersson← A. Engelbrektsson

Possession

32%Oddevold

Shots

12Oddevold

Pass accuracy

47%Oddevold

Statistics

OddevoldOsters
Overview
32%Possession68%
12Total Shots5
1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.71
4Corners5
8Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots5
4On Target1
3Off Target2
5Blocked2
9Inside Box3
3Outside Box2
Passing
32%Possession68%
262Total Passes588
199Accurate Passes504
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Oddevold vs Osters IF

Oddevold and Osters IF drew 1-1 in Superettan on October 6, 2024.

Goals: D. Ljung (44'), A. Al Hamlawi (50').

Osters IF controlled possession (68%) and registered 5 shots to 12.

The match was played at Rimnersvallen in Uddevalla.