Osters IF 1–1 Oddevold: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oddevold

M. Pavic 89'

D. Velic 56'

J. Patriksson 38'

10/8/2016

Ettan - Södra · Round 22Myresjöhus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Osters IF52%

×Draw26%

Oddevold22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchOddevold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.85

Osters IF

1.48

Oddevold

0.85

Osters IF creates 74% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 45 away

2.00

creates per match

1.38

0.33

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Osters IF

2.00

Oddevold

1.38

allows per match

Osters IF

0.33

Oddevold

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

Oddevold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Oddevold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

78%

Osters IF or Oddevold

74%

Draw or Oddevold

48%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

26%

Oddevold wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

77%

Osters IF 2+ goals

43%

Osters IF 3+ goals

19%

Oddevold 1+ goals

57%

Oddevold 2+ goals

21%

Oddevold 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

71%

Oddevold (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Oddevold away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 2.00 + Oddevold defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Oddevold attack 1.38 + Osters IF defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Osters IF scores more

52%

level

26%

Oddevold scores more

22%

Osters IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

J. Patriksson

56'

D. Velic

68'

R. Strömberg← R. Östlind

72'

V. Mollapolci← E. Niklasson

80'

R. Lipovac← T. Mikaelsson

81'

M. Pavic← R. Donkor

89'

M. Pavic

Osters

Oddevold

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Askebrand

68'▲R. Strömberg←▼R. Östlind

81'▲M. Pavic←▼R. Donkor

Osters IF substitutes

StrömbergPavicAhonenElvbyRydénStahreStolth

Manager: J. Rehnberg

72'▲V. Mollapolci←▼E. Niklasson

80'▲R. Lipovac←▼T. Mikaelsson

Oddevold substitutes

MollapolciLipovacBergmanHedlundBergHårenberg