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Osters IF vs IFK Varnamo — Allsvenskan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
I. Kricak 90'
N. Soderberg 90'
A. Aliev 45'
O. Uddenas 14'
K. Meriluoto 50', 28', 23'
9/14/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 23Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Osters IF41%
×Draw23%
IFK Varnamo35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.67
IFK Varnamo
1.52

Osters IF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.07
IFK Varnamo
1.44

allows per match

Osters IF
1.60
IFK Varnamo
2.28

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
65%
Osters IF or IFK Varnamo
77%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
59%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
21%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
81%
Osters IF 2+ goals
50%
Osters IF 3+ goals
23%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
78%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
45%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
54%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.07 + IFK Varnamo defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.67

IFK Varnamo attack 1.44 + Osters IF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Osters IF scores more
41%
level
23%
IFK Varnamo scores more
35%

Osters IF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
K. MeriluotoIFK VarnamoIFK Varnamo · F
9.0

Match Events

14'
O. Uddenas↳ M. Christensen
23'
K. Meriluoto↳ N. Shamoun
28'
K. Meriluoto↳ A. Zeljkovic
45'
A. Aliev↳ D. Olsson
50'
K. Meriluoto
56'
D. Ljung← V. Rodic
65'
P. Cibicki← A. Zeljkovic
66'
A. Kujundzic← M. Alsalkhadi
71'
N. Soderberg← D. Ask
71'
P. Sejdiu← O. Uddenas
76'
J. Rapp← V. Larsson
76'
I. Abdulrazak← N. Shamoun
80'
H. Andersson← M. Antonsson
90+5'
Niklas Söderberg
90+4'
Antonio Kujundzic
90'
I. Kricak↳ A. Aliev
90'
N. Soderberg↳ A. Aliev

Possession

62%Osters

Shots

17Osters

Pass accuracy

52%Osters

Statistics

OstersIFK
Overview
62%Possession38%
17Total Shots17
2.61Expected Goals (xG)1.59
6Corners5
7Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots17
9On Target5
3Off Target7
5Blocked5
15Inside Box11
2Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
583Total Passes354
487Accurate Passes276
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Osters IF vs IFK Varnamo

Osters IF beat IFK Varnamo 4-3 in Allsvenskan on September 14, 2025.

Goals: O. Uddenas (14'), K. Meriluoto (23', 28', 50'), A. Aliev (45'), I. Kricak (90'), N. Soderberg (90').

Osters IF controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 17.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Vaxjo.