Osters IF 0–1 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Varnamo

O. Johansson 10'

2/25/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportfältet Teleborg Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Osters IF26%

×Draw26%

IFK Varnamo49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.53

Osters IF

1.04

IFK Varnamo

1.53

IFK Varnamo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

0.57

2.50

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Osters IF

0.50

IFK Varnamo

0.57

allows per match

Osters IF

2.50

IFK Varnamo

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

51%

Osters IF or IFK Varnamo

74%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

74%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

10%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

65%

Osters IF 2+ goals

28%

Osters IF 3+ goals

9%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

78%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

45%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

35%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 0.50 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.04

IFK Varnamo attack 0.57 + Osters IF defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Osters IF scores more

26%

level

26%

IFK Varnamo scores more

49%

IFK Varnamo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

O. Johansson

Osters

IFK

Manager: S. Tufegdzic

Manager: K. Hellberg