IFK Varnamo 1–1 Osters IF: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Osters IF

A. Zeljkovic 8'

L. Bergquist 90'

5/24/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 11Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

IFK Varnamo40%

×Draw26%

Osters IF35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.31

IFK Varnamo

1.42

Osters IF

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

1.20

creates per match

0.88

1.75

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.20

Osters IF

0.88

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.75

Osters IF

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

65%

IFK Varnamo or Osters IF

74%

Draw or Osters IF

60%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

19%

Osters IF wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

76%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

41%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

17%

Osters IF 1+ goals

73%

Osters IF 2+ goals

38%

Osters IF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

53%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

Osters IF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.20 + Osters IF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Osters IF attack 0.88 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

40%

level

26%

Osters IF scores more

35%

IFK Varnamo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

I. Kricak

Osters IF · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

Magnus Christensen

8'

A. Zeljkovic↳ F. Junior Adjei

45'

Carl Johansson

46'

D. Ask← M. Christensen

46'

L. Bergquist← D. Olsson

50'

David Seger

54'

Youssoupha Sanyang

62'

Daniel Ask

68'

M. Alsalkhadi← A. Zeljkovic

68'

I. Abdulrazak← Wenderson

71'

D. Ljung← Y. Sanyang

80'

C. Kouakou← N. Soderberg

81'

P. Cibicki← J. Kalu

81'

K. Bilalovic← C. Johansson

90'

J. Rapp← F. Junior Adjei

90'

L. Bergquist↳ D. Ljung

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKOsters

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots9

0.53Expected Goals (xG)1.15

6Corners2

11Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target1

6Off Target5

6Blocked3

7Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

359Total Passes561

267Accurate Passes465

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2