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IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
Unknown 38', 30', 13'
A. Aliev 83'
2/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ljusseveka 8 Värnamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Varnamo48%
×Draw22%
Osters IF30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.91
Osters IF
1.48

IFK Varnamo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.82
Osters IF
1.50

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.45
Osters IF
2.00

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
70%
IFK Varnamo or Osters IF
78%
Draw or Osters IF
52%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
27%
Osters IF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
85%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
57%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
30%
Osters IF 1+ goals
77%
Osters IF 2+ goals
43%
Osters IF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
61%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.82 + Osters IF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Osters IF attack 1.50 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
48%
level
22%
Osters IF scores more
30%

IFK Varnamo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
30'
38'
83'
A. Aliev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: IFK Varnamo 3–1 Osters IF

IFK Varnamo beat Osters IF 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 10, 2024.

Goals: ? (13', 30', 38'), A. Aliev (83').

The match was played at Ljusseveka 8 Värnamo in Värnamo.