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Osters IF vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
A. Aliev 78'
E. Barsoum 90'
A. Taranis 66'
10/25/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 28Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Osters IF39%
×Draw23%
Degerfors IF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.42
Degerfors IF
1.30

allows per match

Osters IF
1.88
Degerfors IF
1.83

finishing

Osters IF-0.64scores less
Degerfors IF+0.18scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
63%
Osters IF or Degerfors IF
77%
Draw or Degerfors IF
61%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
20%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
80%
Osters IF 2+ goals
48%
Osters IF 3+ goals
22%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
80%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
47%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
51%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.88 · 9 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.42 + Degerfors IF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

Degerfors IF attack 1.30 + Osters IF defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Osters IF scores more
39%
level
23%
Degerfors IF scores more
37%

Osters IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
D. OlssonOsters IFOsters IF · D
7.7

Match Events

57'
Nahom Girmai
59'
Juhani Pikkarainen
61'
Ivan Kričak
66'
A. Taranis
68'
Daniel Ask
72'
N. Soderberg← N. Soderberg
72'
L. Bergquist← D. Olsson
76'
M. Tamminen← D. Ask
78'
A. Aliev↳ M. Tamminen
83'
N. Moro← S. Haarala
87'
E. Barsoum← M. Rafferty
90+6'
Niklas Söderberg
90+6'
Tatu Varmanen
90'
E. Barsoum

Possession

57%Osters

Shots

16Osters

Pass accuracy

53%Osters

Statistics

OstersDegerfors
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots14
10Corners4
16Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots14
2On Target9
8Off Target4
6Blocked1
10Inside Box7
6Outside Box7
Passing
57%Possession43%
412Total Passes313
338Accurate Passes233
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls9
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Osters IF vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat Osters IF 2-1 in Allsvenskan on October 25, 2025.

Goals: A. Taranis (66'), A. Aliev (78'), E. Barsoum (90').

Osters IF controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Vaxjo.