Degerfors IF 1–2 Osters IF: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Osters IF

E. Pihlström 5'

A. Aliev 46'

I. Kričak 10'

11/9/2024

Superettan · Round 30Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Degerfors IF49%

×Draw24%

Osters IF27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.21

Degerfors IF

1.71

Osters IF

1.21

Degerfors IF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 100 away

2.04

creates per match

1.30

1.13

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Degerfors IF

2.04

Osters IF

1.30

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.13

Osters IF

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

73%

Degerfors IF or Osters IF

76%

Draw or Osters IF

51%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

26%

Osters IF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

82%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

51%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

24%

Osters IF 1+ goals

70%

Osters IF 2+ goals

34%

Osters IF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

64%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.37 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 2.04 + Osters IF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.71

Osters IF attack 1.30 + Degerfors IF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

49%

level

24%

Osters IF scores more

27%

Degerfors IF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

10'

31'

46'

69'

A. Hedén Lindskog← S. Ohlsson

69'

M. Andersen← A. Aliev

70'

Mattis Adolfsson

73'

S. Hedlund← N. Söderberg

79'

A. Fisic← L. Kassi

90+3'

N. Moro← Carlos Moros

Degerfors3-5-2

Osters4-1-4-1

20

⚽

▼

Aliev

18

Ljung

7

Seger

9

▼

19

8

21

15

⚽

5

33

13

25

7

▼

Ohlsson

30

Morgado

6

▼

Moros

21

⚽

Pihlström

22

Netabay

8

Holmén

17

▼

18

10

9

Manager: W. Lundin

69'▲A. Hedén Lindskog←▼S. Ohlsson

79'▲A. Fisic←▼L. Kassi

90+3'▲N. Moro←▼Carlos Moros

Degerfors IF substitutes

23Lindskog11Fisic15Moro19Bichis24Ilunga26Järlesand16Bunjaku

Manager: M. Foyston

69'▲M. Andersen←▼A. Aliev

73'▲S. Hedlund←▼N. Söderberg

Osters IF substitutes

25Andersen4Hedlund10Mörfelt16Adjei23Rodić24Johansson32Persson