Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Osters IF vs Degerfors IF — Superettan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
F. Örnblom 51' (pen), 42'
10/17/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 23Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Osters IF38%
×Draw26%
Degerfors IF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.32
Degerfors IF
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 48 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.68
Degerfors IF
1.48

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
Degerfors IF
0.96

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
64%
Osters IF or Degerfors IF
74%
Draw or Degerfors IF
62%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
17%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
73%
Osters IF 2+ goals
38%
Osters IF 3+ goals
15%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
72%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
36%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
52%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.68 + Degerfors IF defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.32

Degerfors IF attack 1.48 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Osters IF scores more
38%
level
26%
Degerfors IF scores more
36%

Osters IF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
F. Örnblom
51'
F. ÖrnblomPenalty
56'
Marc Rochester Sørensen
61'
Adam Carlen
62'
F. Ayaz← V. Dahlström
63'
J. Ortmark← A. Carlén
71'
A. Henningsson← M. Pavic
71'
M. Astvald← A. Lindahl
71'
E. Lindell← D. Janevski
79'
J. Persson← M. Sørensen
89'
S. Alexandersson← J. Keene

Possession

52%Osters

Shots

9Osters

Statistics

OstersDegerfors
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots3
4Corners6
9Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots3
6On Target0
3Off Target3
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Osters IF vs Degerfors IF

Osters IF beat Degerfors IF 2-0 in Superettan on October 17, 2020.

Goals: F. Örnblom (42', 51' pen).

Osters IF controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 3.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.