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Degerfors IF vs Osters IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Osters IF
Osters IF
O. Faraj 18' (pen)
D. Olsson 43'
M. Diaby 8' (OG)
5/31/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 12Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Degerfors IF44%
×Draw26%
Osters IF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.46
Osters IF
1.18

Degerfors IF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.14
Osters IF
0.93

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.42
Osters IF
1.77

finishing

Degerfors IF-0.38scores less
Osters IF-0.13scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
69%
Degerfors IF or Osters IF
74%
Draw or Osters IF
56%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
21%
Osters IF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
77%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
43%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
18%
Osters IF 1+ goals
69%
Osters IF 2+ goals
33%
Osters IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
59%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 21 matches

Osters IF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.14 + Osters IF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Osters IF attack 0.93 + Degerfors IF defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
44%
level
26%
Osters IF scores more
31%

Degerfors IF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. PikkarainenDegerfors IFDegerfors IF
8.3

Match Events

8'
M. DiabyOwn goal
18'
O. FarajPenalty
43'
D. Olsson↳ D. Ljung
46'
V. Rodic← D. Olsson
56'
M. Lundgren← E. Pihlstrom
69'
A. Fisic← M. Diaby
71'
N. Soderberg← D. Seger
71'
M. Christensen← M. Tamminen
72'
S. Starke← K. Gyamfi
77'
Sebastian Hedlund
80'
Lukas Bergquist
89'
T. Gronborg← E. Barsoum
89'
A. Heden← S. Ohlsson
90+3'
Alibek Aliev
90+4'
O. Gabrielsson← A. Aliev

Possession

57%Degerfors

Shots

16Degerfors

Pass accuracy

52%Degerfors

Statistics

DegerforsOsters
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots7
2.27Expected Goals (xG)0.58
4Corners3
9Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots7
4On Target3
6Off Target1
6Blocked3
10Inside Box6
6Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
465Total Passes369
383Accurate Passes276
82%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Osters IF

Osters IF beat Degerfors IF 2-1 in Allsvenskan on May 31, 2025.

Goals: M. Diaby (8' o.g.), O. Faraj (18' pen), D. Olsson (43').

Degerfors IF controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.