Osmanlispor 2–0 Menemen FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Osmanlispor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Menemen FK

2/21/2020

1. Lig · Round 23Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Osmanlispor43%

×Draw26%

Menemen FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsmanlisporExpected goals in this matchMenemen FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.21

Osmanlispor

1.46

Menemen FK

1.21

Osmanlispor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

1.35

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Osmanlispor

1.29

Menemen FK

1.06

allows per match

Osmanlispor

1.35

Menemen FK

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Menemen FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw

69%

Osmanlispor or Menemen FK

74%

Draw or Menemen FK

57%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

21%

Menemen FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

77%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

43%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

18%

Menemen FK 1+ goals

70%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

34%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

58%

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 1.29 + Menemen FK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Menemen FK attack 1.06 + Osmanlispor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Osmanlispor scores more

43%

level

26%

Menemen FK scores more

31%

Osmanlispor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff