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Ankaraspor vs Menemen FK — 1. Lig 2018

Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Menemen FK
Menemen FK
3/6/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 25Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ankaraspor43%
×Draw26%
Menemen FK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankaraspor
1.46
Menemen FK
1.21

Ankaraspor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ankaraspor
1.29
Menemen FK
1.06

allows per match

Ankaraspor
1.35
Menemen FK
1.62

finishing

Ankaraspor+0.00on par
Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaraspor ↓

Menemen FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ankaraspor or draw
69%
Ankaraspor or Menemen FK
74%
Draw or Menemen FK
57%

Winning margin

Ankaraspor wins by 2+
21%
Menemen FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ankaraspor 1+ goals
77%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
43%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
18%
Menemen FK 1+ goals
70%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
34%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
58%
Menemen FK (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaraspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaraspor attack 1.29 + Menemen FK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Menemen FK attack 1.06 + Ankaraspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ankaraspor scores more
43%
level
26%
Menemen FK scores more
31%

Ankaraspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ankaraspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ankaraspor vs Menemen FK

Ankaraspor and Menemen FK drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.