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Menemen FK vs Ankaraspor — 1. Lig 2018

Menemen FK
Menemen FK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
12/1/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 8Menemen Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Menemen FK38%
×Draw26%
Ankaraspor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menemen FK
1.38
Ankaraspor
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Menemen FK
1.29
Ankaraspor
1.10

allows per match

Menemen FK
1.54
Ankaraspor
1.46

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par
Ankaraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

Ankaraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw
64%
Menemen FK or Ankaraspor
74%
Draw or Ankaraspor
62%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+
18%
Ankaraspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals
75%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
40%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
16%
Ankaraspor 1+ goals
73%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
38%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)
52%
Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Ankaraspor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.29 + Ankaraspor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ankaraspor attack 1.10 + Menemen FK defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Menemen FK scores more
38%
level
26%
Ankaraspor scores more
36%

Menemen FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Menemen FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menemen FK vs Ankaraspor

Menemen FK beat Ankaraspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on December 1, 2020.

The match was played at Menemen Şehir Stadı in Menemen.