Menemen FK 1–2 Osmanlispor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Menemen FK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Osmanlispor

9/29/2019

1. Lig · Round 6Menemen Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Menemen FK38%

×Draw26%

Osmanlispor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menemen FKExpected goals in this matchOsmanlispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.32

Menemen FK

1.38

Osmanlispor

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

1.29

creates per match

1.10

1.54

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Menemen FK

1.29

Osmanlispor

1.10

allows per match

Menemen FK

1.54

Osmanlispor

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

Osmanlispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw

64%

Menemen FK or Osmanlispor

74%

Draw or Osmanlispor

62%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+

18%

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals

75%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

40%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

16%

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

73%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

38%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

52%

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Osmanlispor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.29 + Osmanlispor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Osmanlispor attack 1.10 + Menemen FK defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Menemen FK scores more

38%

level

26%

Osmanlispor scores more

36%

Menemen FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Menemen FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff