Orleans 4–2 Niort: Result & Stats | League #63

Orleans

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 0

Niort

A. Luth 45'

J. Halby-Touré 40'

V. Thérésin 15'

V. Marcel 9'

N. Elphege 71'

B. M'bondo 54'

10/20/2023

League #63 · Round 11Stade de la Source

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orleans34%

×Draw26%

Niort40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrleansExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.41

Orleans

1.29

Niort

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.88

0.94

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Orleans

1.33

Niort

1.88

allows per match

Orleans

0.94

Niort

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orleans+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orleans ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Orleans or draw

60%

Orleans or Niort

74%

Draw or Niort

66%

Winning margin

Orleans wins by 2+

15%

Niort wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Orleans 1+ goals

72%

Orleans 2+ goals

37%

Orleans 3+ goals

14%

Niort 1+ goals

76%

Niort 2+ goals

41%

Niort 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Orleans (draw refunded)

46%

Niort (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orleans at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Niort away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orleans attack 1.33 + Niort defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Niort attack 1.88 + Orleans defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orleans scores more

34%

level

26%

Niort scores more

40%

Niort at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

V. Marcel↳ J. Halby-Touré

15'

V. Thérésin↳ K. Fortuné

39'

M. Zemzemi

40'

J. Halby-Touré↳ R. Ponti

45'

A. Luth↳ K. Fortuné

46'

S. Cissé← B. El Kaddouri

46'

N. Bouekou← M. Zemzemi

53'

J. Santini

54'

B. M'bondo↳ B. Ecuele Manga

58'

V. Marcel

58'

A. Dabasse← V. Marcel

71'

N. Elphege↳ S. Cissé

72'

B. Agounon← J. Halby-Touré

78'

78'

81'

86'

90'

Orleans

Niort

1

Delecroix

5

A

Manga

2

Bernard

14

Durivaux

18

⚽

M'bondo

7

▼

Zemzemi

26

Benchamma

17

▼

Renel

29

▼

Gasnier

19

⚽

Elphege

20

▼

Kaddouri

1

Viot

4

Jean-Pier

22

⚽A

▼

Halby-Tou

27

Santini

21

⚽

Thérésin

15

Goujon

8

⚽

▼

Marcel

20

A

Ponti

25

Bretelle

13

A

Fortuné

26

⚽

▼

Luth

Manager: S. Dubroca

58'▲A. Dabasse←▼V. Marcel

72'▲B. Agounon←▼J. Halby-Touré

86'▲Y. Soumaré←▼A. Luth

Orleans substitutes

10Dabasse28Agounon7Soumaré5Camara6Niakaté

Manager: P. Hinschberger

46'▲S. Cissé←▼B. El Kaddouri

46'▲N. Bouekou←▼M. Zemzemi

78'▲T. Tormin←▼S. Renel

78'▲R. Anaba←▼K. Gasnier

Niort substitutes

11Cissé21Bouekou24Tormin25Anaba40Mbeubap

Orleans 4 – 2 Niort

Orleans beat Niort 4-2 in League #63 on October 20, 2023.

Goals: V. Marcel (9'), V. Thérésin (15'), J. Halby-Touré (40'), A. Luth (45'), B. M'bondo (54'), N. Elphege (71').

The match was played at Stade de la Source in Orléans.

Orleans vs Niort — League #63 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Orleans 4 – 2 Niort