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Orleans vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Orleans
Orleans
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Niort
Niort
O. Kemen 61'
8/30/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade de la Source (Orléans)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Orleans39%
×Draw28%
Niort33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orleans
1.21
Niort
1.09

Orleans creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 92 away

creates per match

Orleans
0.88
Niort
0.85

allows per match

Orleans
1.33
Niort
1.54

finishing

Orleans+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orleans ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orleans or draw
67%
Orleans or Niort
72%
Draw or Niort
61%

Winning margin

Orleans wins by 2+
17%
Niort wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orleans 1+ goals
70%
Orleans 2+ goals
34%
Orleans 3+ goals
12%
Niort 1+ goals
66%
Niort 2+ goals
30%
Niort 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Orleans (draw refunded)
54%
Niort (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orleans at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orleans attack 0.88 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Niort attack 0.85 + Orleans defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orleans scores more
39%
level
28%
Niort scores more
33%

Orleans at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orleans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
S. AllagbéNiortNiort · G
8.2

Match Events

61'
O. Kemen↳ V. Jacob
71'
Antoine Leautey
74'
Stéphane Lambèse
76'
J. Correa← J. Lopy
76'
M. D'Arpino← Y. Demoncy
82'
F. El Khoumisti← S. Lambese
82'
L. Ameka← A. Leautey
90+2'
T. Vion← G. Koyalipou

Possession

58%Orleans

Shots

13Orleans

Pass accuracy

51%Orleans

Statistics

OrleansNiort
Overview
58%Possession42%
13Total Shots18
8Corners10
8Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots18
5On Target7
5Off Target8
3Blocked3
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box10
Passing
58%Possession42%
414Total Passes288
308Accurate Passes201
74%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Orleans 0 – 1 Niort

Niort beat Orleans 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 30, 2019.

Goals: O. Kemen (61').

Orleans controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stade de la Source (Orléans) in Orléans.