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Niort vs Orleans — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orleans
Orleans
V. Jacob 83'
I. Sissoko 74'
2/7/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade René Gaillard (Niort)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Niort38%
×Draw26%
Orleans35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.33
Orleans
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 33 away

creates per match

Niort
1.09
Orleans
1.30

allows per match

Niort
1.22
Orleans
1.58

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Orleans+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Orleans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Niort or draw
65%
Niort or Orleans
74%
Draw or Orleans
62%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
17%
Orleans wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
74%
Niort 2+ goals
38%
Niort 3+ goals
15%
Orleans 1+ goals
72%
Orleans 2+ goals
36%
Orleans 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
52%
Orleans (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Orleans away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Orleans defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Orleans attack 1.30 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niort scores more
38%
level
26%
Orleans scores more
35%

Niort at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
I. SissokoNiortNiort · F
7.6

Match Events

30'
Arial Mendy
32'
Gauthier Pinaud
34'
Valentin Jacob
46'
O. Kemen← Y. Bourhane
61'
G. Koyalipou← A. Leautey
71'
P. Nakoulma← E. Butin
74'
T. Vion← D. Djigla
74'
I. Sissoko↳ O. Kemen
77'
A. Scheidler← Y. Demoncy
80'
V. Thill← G. Pinaud
83'
V. Jacob↳ J. Da Costa

Possession

55%Niort

Shots

11Niort

Pass accuracy

50%Niort

Statistics

NiortOrleans
Overview
55%Possession45%
11Total Shots12
2Corners3
8Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots12
3On Target1
5Off Target8
3Blocked3
8Inside Box5
3Outside Box7
Passing
55%Possession45%
433Total Passes338
332Accurate Passes265
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Niort 2 – 0 Orleans

Niort beat Orleans 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 7, 2020.

Goals: I. Sissoko (74'), V. Jacob (83').

Niort controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard (Niort) in Niort.