Niort 0–0 Orleans: Result & Stats | League #63

Niort

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orleans

4/1/2024

League #63 · Round 27Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Niort45%

×Draw29%

Orleans26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchOrleans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.86

Niort

1.25

Orleans

0.86

Niort creates 45% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.56

creates per match

1.06

0.67

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Niort

1.56

Orleans

1.06

allows per match

Niort

0.67

Orleans

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Orleans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Orleans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Niort or draw

74%

Niort or Orleans

71%

Draw or Orleans

55%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

20%

Orleans wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

71%

Niort 2+ goals

36%

Niort 3+ goals

13%

Orleans 1+ goals

58%

Orleans 2+ goals

21%

Orleans 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

64%

Orleans (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Orleans away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.56 + Orleans defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Orleans attack 1.06 + Niort defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Niort scores more

45%

level

29%

Orleans scores more

26%

Niort at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

P. Etoughe← V. Marcel

64'

A. Dabasse

73'

B. El Kaddouri← M. Zemzemi

73'

G. Bentil← R. Bakayoko

80'

80'

87'

90+4'

90+4'

90+2'

N. El Hassani← N. Bouekou

Niort

Orleans

1

14

28

22

3

21

5

11

15

8

▼

10

1

5

2

14

18

7

▼

Zemzemi

26

Benchamma

17

▼

Renel

21

▼

Bouekou

22

▼

Bakayoko

9

▼

Inchaud

Manager: P. Hinschberger

73'▲B. El Kaddouri←▼M. Zemzemi

73'▲G. Bentil←▼R. Bakayoko

80'▲M. Keita←▼M. Inchaud

80'▲L. Manga←▼S. Renel

90+2'▲N. El Hassani←▼N. Bouekou

Niort substitutes

20Kaddouri8Bentil23Keita12Manga28Hassani

Manager: K. Mokeddem

61'▲P. Etoughe←▼V. Marcel

Orleans substitutes

17Etoughe9Akassou7Soumaré16Matimbou6Niakaté

League #63: Niort 0–0 Orleans

Niort and Orleans drew 0-0 in League #63 on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Orleans — League #63 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #63: Niort 0–0 Orleans