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Orleans vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Orleans
Orleans
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Niort
Niort
A. Lauriente 35'
1/26/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade de la Source

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Orleans39%
×Draw28%
Niort33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orleans
1.21
Niort
1.09

Orleans creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 92 away

creates per match

Orleans
0.88
Niort
0.85

allows per match

Orleans
1.33
Niort
1.54

finishing

Orleans+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orleans ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orleans or draw
67%
Orleans or Niort
72%
Draw or Niort
61%

Winning margin

Orleans wins by 2+
17%
Niort wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orleans 1+ goals
70%
Orleans 2+ goals
34%
Orleans 3+ goals
12%
Niort 1+ goals
66%
Niort 2+ goals
30%
Niort 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Orleans (draw refunded)
54%
Niort (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orleans at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orleans attack 0.88 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Niort attack 0.85 + Orleans defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orleans scores more
39%
level
28%
Niort scores more
33%

Orleans at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orleans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
F. LapisNiortNiort
7.6

Match Events

6'
Pierre Bouby
11'
Florian Lapis
35'
A. Lauriente
41'
Gauthier Pinaud
60'
D. Djigla← Y. Bourhane
64'
Matthieu Sans
77'
M. D'Arpino← O. Cissokho
78'
L. Ameka← V. Jacob
79'
Q. Lecoeuche← D. Avounou
83'
H. Benkaid← A. Lauriente
85'
A. Dabasse← B. Konaté
86'
Adrien Monfray

Possession

45%Orleans

Shots

16Orleans

Pass accuracy

49%Orleans

Statistics

OrleansNiort
Overview
45%Possession55%
16Total Shots11
4Corners4
10Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots11
3On Target1
8Off Target7
5Blocked3
8Inside Box5
8Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
341Total Passes418
218Accurate Passes279
64%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
7Offsides3

Match Recap: Orleans vs Niort

Orleans beat Niort 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 26, 2019.

Goals: A. Lauriente (35').

Niort controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade de la Source in Orleans.