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Niort vs Orleans — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orleans
Orleans
A. Dona N'Doh 33'
F. El Khoumisti 57'
8/17/2018Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade René-Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Niort38%
×Draw26%
Orleans35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.33
Orleans
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 33 away

creates per match

Niort
1.09
Orleans
1.30

allows per match

Niort
1.22
Orleans
1.58

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Orleans+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Orleans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Niort or draw
65%
Niort or Orleans
74%
Draw or Orleans
62%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
17%
Orleans wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
74%
Niort 2+ goals
38%
Niort 3+ goals
15%
Orleans 1+ goals
72%
Orleans 2+ goals
36%
Orleans 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
52%
Orleans (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Orleans away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Orleans defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Orleans attack 1.30 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niort scores more
38%
level
26%
Orleans scores more
35%

Niort at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
C. RivieyranNiortNiort · D
7.5

Match Events

24'
Yohan Demoncy
25'
Dylan Louiserre
33'
A. Dona N'Doh
37'
Steve Furtado
55'
L. Ameka← G. Koyalipou
57'
F. El Khoumisti↳ Q. Lecoeuche
61'
Ande Dona Ndoh
64'
V. Jacob← T. Lebeau
74'
G. Perrin← F. El Khoumisti
76'
Thomas Renault
79'
Yacine Bourhane
80'
Q. Bena← Y. Bourhane
86'
A. Le Tallec← J. Tell

Possession

54%Niort

Shots

12Niort

Pass accuracy

53%Niort

Statistics

NiortOrleans
Overview
54%Possession46%
12Total Shots10
9Corners4
16Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target4
6Off Target5
1Blocked1
5Inside Box5
7Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
362Total Passes302
260Accurate Passes194
72%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls16
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Niort vs Orleans

Niort and Orleans drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on August 17, 2018.

Goals: A. Dona N'Doh (33'), F. El Khoumisti (57').

Niort controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade René-Gaillard in Niort.