Moreirense 1–1 Tondela: Result & Stats

Moreirense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tondela

M. Sougou 84'

Kaká 20'

3/18/2017

Primeira Liga · Round 26Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Moreirense37%

×Draw27%

Tondela36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Moreirense

1.27

Tondela

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

0.83

creates per match

1.13

1.32

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Moreirense

0.83

Tondela

1.13

allows per match

Moreirense

1.32

Tondela

1.71

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Moreirense+0.35scores more

Tondela-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

64%

Moreirense or Tondela

73%

Draw or Tondela

63%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

16%

Tondela wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

72%

Moreirense 2+ goals

36%

Moreirense 3+ goals

14%

Tondela 1+ goals

71%

Tondela 2+ goals

35%

Tondela 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

51%

Tondela (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 0.83 + Tondela defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tondela attack 1.13 + Moreirense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Moreirense scores more

37%

level

27%

Tondela scores more

36%

Moreirense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Diego Ivo

Moreirense · D

8.0

Match Events

20'

Kaká↳ Fernando Ferreira

27'

Diego Ivo

31'

Pité← Miguel Cardoso

33'

E. Boateng← Alan Schons

42'

D. Flores← Fernando Ferreira

46'

O. Drame← Alex

49'

D. Ramírez← Roberto

53'

David Ramirez

77'

Heliardo

82'

Murilo← Pité

84'

M. Sougou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoreirenseTondela

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots9

5Corners4

22Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target5

8Off Target4

1Blocked0

12Inside Box5

1Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

413Total Passes378

307Accurate Passes269

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0