Orense SC 1–1 Manta FC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Orense SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manta FC

A. Mena 49'

J. Blanco 59' (pen)

3/10/2026

Liga Pro · Round 3Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Orense SC55%

×Draw25%

Manta FC20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.85

Orense SC

1.61

Manta FC

0.85

Orense SC creates 89% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 29 away

1.36

creates per match

0.66

1.04

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Orense SC

1.36

Manta FC

0.66

allows per match

Orense SC

1.04

Manta FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par

Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

80%

Orense SC or Manta FC

75%

Draw or Manta FC

45%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

30%

Manta FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

80%

Orense SC 2+ goals

48%

Orense SC 3+ goals

22%

Manta FC 1+ goals

57%

Manta FC 2+ goals

21%

Manta FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

74%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.36 + Manta FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61

Manta FC attack 0.66 + Orense SC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Orense SC scores more

55%

level

25%

Manta FC scores more

20%

Orense SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

O. Moscarelli

Manta FC · D

7.6

Match Events

17'

Paul Charpentier

25'

Jostin Alman

34'

V. Burgoa← G. Rostagno

45+8'

Jostin AlmanMissed penalty

45+6'

Maikel ValenciaPenalty confirmed

46'

M. Bermudez← P. Charpentier

49'

A. Mena↳ M. Bermudez

56'

Alan LorenzoCard upgrade

58'

Alan Lorenzo

59'

J. BlancoPenalty

61'

S. Callegari← A. Herrera

72'

E. Beltramone← J. Jimenez

84'

E. Pluas← R. Jaramilo

84'

L. Garces←

84'

J. Angulo← J. Blanco

84'

J. Chala← R. Burbano

84'

J. Rialpe← M. Valencia

90+1'

Óscar Quiñónez

90+5'

F. Asagidigbi← J. Alman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrenseManta

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots10

0.66Expected Goals (xG)2.17

4Corners6

16Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target4

3Off Target4

6Blocked2

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

438Total Passes366

368Accurate Passes296

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0