Manta FC 0–0 Orense SC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Manta FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orense SC

8/28/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 6Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Manta FC44%

×Draw28%

Orense SC28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.97

Manta FC

1.31

Orense SC

0.97

Manta FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

1.21

creates per match

0.74

1.21

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Manta FC

1.21

Orense SC

0.74

allows per match

Manta FC

1.21

Orense SC

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par

Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

72%

Manta FC or Orense SC

72%

Draw or Orense SC

56%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

20%

Orense SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

73%

Manta FC 2+ goals

38%

Manta FC 3+ goals

14%

Orense SC 1+ goals

62%

Orense SC 2+ goals

25%

Orense SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

62%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.21 + Orense SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Orense SC attack 0.74 + Manta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Manta FC scores more

44%

level

28%

Orense SC scores more

28%

Manta FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Oscar Esteban Quinonez Mendoza

14'

Erwin Moreira

20'

Alejandro Javier Frezzotti

24'

Joel Quintero

38'

Joel Jacobo Molina Renteria

45+3'

Julio Angulo

46'

J. Domínguez← J. Quintero

57'

W. Godoy← N. Czornomaz

60'

Alan Murialdo

60'

N. Prieto← K. Triviño

67'

S. Ortiz← J. Molina

67'

J. Uchuari← J. Angulo

78'

M. Romero← G. Bustamante

78'

V. Angulo← J. Rezabala

81'

Oscar Esteban Quinonez Mendoza

81'

Oscar Esteban Quinonez Mendoza

84'

J. Cevallos← A. Murialdo

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MantaOrense

Overview

52%Possession48%

4Total Shots2

3Corners9

25Fouls25

Shots

4Total Shots2

0On Target2

4Off Target0

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

25Fouls25

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1