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Manta FC vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2024

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
6/24/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 17Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Manta FC43%
×Draw28%
Orense SC28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.27
Orense SC
0.96

Manta FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.21
Orense SC
0.72

allows per match

Manta FC
1.21
Orense SC
1.34

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
72%
Manta FC or Orense SC
72%
Draw or Orense SC
57%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
20%
Orense SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
72%
Manta FC 2+ goals
36%
Manta FC 3+ goals
14%
Orense SC 1+ goals
62%
Orense SC 2+ goals
25%
Orense SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
61%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.21 + Orense SC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Orense SC attack 0.72 + Manta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manta FC scores more
43%
level
28%
Orense SC scores more
28%

Manta FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
J. ZambranoManta FCManta FC · M
7.5

Match Events

17'
Bruno QuiñonezGoal cancelled
22'
Mateo OrtízCard reviewed
45+4'
Pedro Velasco
55'
Mateo Ortíz
64'
E. Zorrilla← R. Ortiz
64'
R. Luna← S. Vasquez
65'
Jefferson Valverde
71'
G. Arturia← P. Velasco
71'
O. Bianchi← B. Caicedo
73'
F. Almeida← M. Ortiz
73'
J. Mina← J. Zambrano
85'
M. Valencia← G. Bartora
85'
D. Cabezas← B. Ramirez
90+1'
D. Armas← N. Molina

Possession

44%Manta

Shots

8Manta

Pass accuracy

48%Manta

Statistics

MantaOrense
Overview
44%Possession56%
8Total Shots12
7Corners6
15Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots12
3On Target1
4Off Target4
1Blocked7
6Inside Box6
2Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
243Total Passes318
172Accurate Passes248
71%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Liga Pro: Manta FC 0–0 Orense SC

Manta FC and Orense SC drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on June 24, 2025.

Orense SC controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.