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Manta FC vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2024

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
7/11/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 18Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Manta FC43%
×Draw28%
Orense SC28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.27
Orense SC
0.96

Manta FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.21
Orense SC
0.72

allows per match

Manta FC
1.21
Orense SC
1.34

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
72%
Manta FC or Orense SC
72%
Draw or Orense SC
57%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
20%
Orense SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
72%
Manta FC 2+ goals
36%
Manta FC 3+ goals
14%
Orense SC 1+ goals
62%
Orense SC 2+ goals
25%
Orense SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
61%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.21 + Orense SC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Orense SC attack 0.72 + Manta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manta FC scores more
43%
level
28%
Orense SC scores more
28%

Manta FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
J. E. Carvajal Burgos
40'
S. Mina
40'
J. Angulo
43'
J. Troya
68'
B. Vinan← E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
72'
R. Burbano← J. Verges
72'
J. Chala← J. Jimenez
81'
M. Valencia← B. Ramirez
82'
J. Angulo← J. Angulo
85'
S. Callegari← S. Mina
85'
D. Armas← S. Vasquez
88'
D. Armas
89'
G. Rostagno← A. Mena
89'
J. Rialpe← J. Nazareno

Possession

46%Manta

Shots

9Manta

Statistics

MantaOrense
Overview
46%Possession54%
9Total Shots8
4Corners4
21Fouls18
Shots
9Total Shots8
1On Target1
6Off Target6
2Blocked1
5Inside Box2
4Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
355Total Passes430
283Accurate Passes345
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
4Offsides1

Liga Pro: Manta FC 0–0 Orense SC

Manta FC and Orense SC drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on July 11, 2026.

Orense SC controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.