Orebro SK 0–2 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

Orebro SK

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

IF Brommapojkarna

N. Vasic 80'

S. Holm 26' (pen)

5/29/2022

Superettan · Round 10Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Orebro SK42%

×Draw25%

IF Brommapojkarna33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orebro SKExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.29

Orebro SK

1.50

IF Brommapojkarna

1.29

Orebro SK creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

1.36

creates per match

1.50

1.07

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Orebro SK

1.36

IF Brommapojkarna

1.50

allows per match

Orebro SK

1.07

IF Brommapojkarna

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw

67%

Orebro SK or IF Brommapojkarna

75%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

58%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+

21%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals

78%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

44%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

19%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

72%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

37%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

56%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.36 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.50 + Orebro SK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orebro SK scores more

42%

level

25%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

33%

Orebro SK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

William Eskelinen

26'

S. HolmPenalty

27'

David Seger

34'

Rodin Deprem

42'

Erik Bjorndahl

44'

N. Maripuu← A. Abrahamsson

46'

D. Złotnik← O. Pettersson

59'

66'

67'

74'

74'

80'

81'

A. Almqvist← M. Ćosić

86'

Daniel Gustafsson

89'

N. Moro← D. Gustavsson

90+2'

Niclas Bergmark

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OrebroIF

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots5

6Corners3

16Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots5

7On Target4

6Off Target1

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0