IF Brommapojkarna 0–0 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orebro SK

5/27/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 11Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna41%

×Draw25%

Orebro SK34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.31

IF Brommapojkarna

1.46

Orebro SK

1.31

IF Brommapojkarna creates 11% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 60 away

1.18

creates per match

0.95

1.68

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.18

Orebro SK

0.95

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.68

Orebro SK

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

66%

IF Brommapojkarna or Orebro SK

75%

Draw or Orebro SK

59%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

20%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

77%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

43%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

18%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

73%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

38%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

55%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.68 · 66 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.18 + Orebro SK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Orebro SK attack 0.95 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

41%

level

25%

Orebro SK scores more

34%

IF Brommapojkarna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Gustafsson

IF Brommapojkarna · M

7.6

Match Events

15'

Filip Rogic

55'

Simon Amin

64'

J. Lahne← E. Omondi

64'

A. Granlund← M. Almebäck

76'

A. Nilsson← T. Söderström

84'

Christopher Brandeborn

84'

M. Nikolic← C. Brandeborn

88'

I. Boye← S. Amin

90'

Markus Gustafsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFOrebro

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots15

10Corners6

14Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots15

4On Target2

5Off Target10

2Blocked3

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

458Total Passes400

370Accurate Passes328

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2