Orebro SK 0–1 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

Orebro SK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IF Brommapojkarna

E. Omondi 58'

8/11/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 17Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Orebro SK40%

×Draw24%

IF Brommapojkarna36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orebro SKExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.46

Orebro SK

1.56

IF Brommapojkarna

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 69 away

1.28

creates per match

1.42

1.50

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Orebro SK

1.28

IF Brommapojkarna

1.42

allows per match

Orebro SK

1.50

IF Brommapojkarna

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw

64%

Orebro SK or IF Brommapojkarna

76%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

60%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+

20%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals

79%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

46%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

21%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

77%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

43%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

53%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.28 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.42 + Orebro SK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orebro SK scores more

40%

level

24%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

36%

Orebro SK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Öhman

IF Brommapojkarna · D

8.1

Match Events

22'

34'

43'

58'

63'

70'

J. Bertilsson← F. Rogic

73'

T. Söderström← M. Zeidan

79'

J. Lahne← E. Omondi

80'

Martin Lorentzson

87'

V. Sköld← N. Gerzić

90'

A. Nilsson← P. Hellquist

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrebroIF

Overview

72%Possession28%

25Total Shots6

10Corners0

18Fouls20

Shots

25Total Shots6

1On Target2

12Off Target4

12Blocked0

15Inside Box2

10Outside Box4

Passing

72%Possession28%

632Total Passes252

544Accurate Passes162

86%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2