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Oldham vs Exeter City — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
15:00
Exeter City
Exeter City
11/21/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Boundary Park
Big match
53%
Exeter City
model favours
23%24%53%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oldham23%
×Draw24%
Exeter City53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.07
Exeter City
1.73

Exeter City creates 62% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.34
Exeter City
2.20

allows per match

Oldham
1.25
Exeter City
0.80

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
47%
Oldham or Exeter City
76%
Draw or Exeter City
77%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
9%
Exeter City wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
66%
Oldham 2+ goals
29%
Oldham 3+ goals
9%
Exeter City 1+ goals
82%
Exeter City 2+ goals
52%
Exeter City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
31%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

Exeter City away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.34 + Exeter City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.07

Exeter City attack 2.20 + Oldham defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oldham scores more
23%
level
24%
Exeter City scores more
53%

Exeter City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
City
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Exeter City (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Exeter City. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Exeter City at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.