Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Exeter City vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oldham
Oldham
11/13/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 16St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Exeter City48%
×Draw26%
Oldham27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.52
Oldham
1.07

Exeter City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 111 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.58
Oldham
1.16

allows per match

Exeter City
0.98
Oldham
1.45

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
73%
Exeter City or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
52%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
24%
Oldham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
78%
Exeter City 2+ goals
45%
Exeter City 3+ goals
20%
Oldham 1+ goals
66%
Oldham 2+ goals
29%
Oldham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
64%
Oldham (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.58 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oldham attack 1.16 + Exeter City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more
48%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
27%

Exeter City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Exeter City 2–1 Oldham

Exeter City beat Oldham 2-1 in League Two on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.