Exeter City 5–1 Oldham: Result & Stats | League Two

Exeter City

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Oldham

B. Dickenson 90+3'

R. Bowman 61'

A. Collins 51'

M. Jay 43' (pen)

J. Richardson 20'

D. Wheater 23'

2/11/2020

League Two · Round 33St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Exeter City48%

×Draw26%

Oldham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Exeter City

1.52

Oldham

1.07

Exeter City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 111 away

1.58

creates per match

1.16

0.98

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Exeter City

1.58

Oldham

1.16

allows per match

Exeter City

0.98

Oldham

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

73%

Exeter City or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

52%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

24%

Oldham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

78%

Exeter City 2+ goals

45%

Exeter City 3+ goals

20%

Oldham 1+ goals

66%

Oldham 2+ goals

29%

Oldham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

64%

Oldham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.58 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oldham attack 1.16 + Exeter City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more

48%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

27%

Exeter City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Jay

Exeter City · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

J. Richardson↳ M. Jay

23'

26'

29'

42'

43'

M. JayPenalty

44'

Z. Mills← J. Branger

51'

A. Collins↳ R. Williams

59'

C. N'Guessan← M. Sylla

61'

R. Bowman↳ M. Jay

65'

A. Fisher← R. Bowman

71'

E. Dieseruvwe← D. Rowe

72'

B. Dickenson← R. Williams

90'

Chris McCann

90+3'

B. Dickenson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterOldham

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots11

11Corners3

5Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots11

9On Target4

2Off Target6

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

429Total Passes368

305Accurate Passes246

71%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1